Sunday, 16 March 2008

The Fallon Resignation

William Arkin makes a six point arguement that the US is not heading for military action with Iran and summarises

So: Is the U.S. headed for war with Iran? It depends on what the meaning of "headed for war" is. If Iran makes a grave error in judgment, if diplomacy fails, if Iran is intent on developing nuclear weapons in defiance of the international community -- then yes, we may be "headed for war." But headed for war because of Fallon's resignation, and before the November election? That's nonsense.
I think Arkin is relying too heavily on reasoned logic being used by Cheney and Co in the White House. Dick Cheney has been advocating military action against Iran for the last 18 months and has had to back off his public rhetoric since the release of the NIE. Iran's 'grave error in judgement' will be more likely, something initiated in the dark recesses of the VP's office. Be prepared for another Gleiwitz.

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