The Iraq Situation

Iraq appears to have disappeared off the radar for the moment with the Sarah Palin story dominating the news cycle. However, the situation there reminds me of that of Yugoslavia in the last days of president Tito.

There was a country basically at peace since the Second World War but in essence a simmering cauldron of ethnic tension held down by the military power of the Tito government. On Tito's death, the nationalistic Slobodan Milosovic rose to power and the lid came off. How similar is Iraq, with the US military providing the 'lid' in this case, but the underlying ethnic, or in this case, religious tensions still existing?

Yes, the 'Surge' was part of the success in reducing the level of violence in Iraq. Just as important though, I believe, were the decision by the Sunni tribes to join the fight against Al Qaeda - The Awakening, and the decision by Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army to observe a ceasefire and the ethnic cleansing and subsequent walling off of various Baghdad districts.

Nouri al-Maliki, the Iraqi prime minister, doesn't seem inclined to integrate the Sunni leaders into the country's government. Indeed, the opposite appears to be happening and he is making a grab for power and excluding them. The status of oil-rich Kirkuk is also a potential flashpoint between the Iraqi government and the Kurds, who to all intents and purposes are self-governing.

All in all then, the underlying tensions in Iraq are still there and until there are moves by the Iraqi government to include the Sunnis and Kurds in power, the Yugoslavia scenario is still a possible outcome.

Dividing Iraq

This needs no further comment...

Big Oil and Iraq

In the Boston Globe yesterday...

IT TOOK five years, the deaths of 4,100 US soldiers, and the wounding of 30,000 more to make Iraq safe for Exxon. It is the inescapable open question since the reasons given by President Bush for the invasion and occupation did not exist, neither the weapons of mass destruction nor Saddam Hussein's ties to Al Qaeda and the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

Ouch!

Success In Iraq

At last, Bush and Cheney can (privately) toast the complete success of Operation Iraqi Liberation Freedom.

What Does the Iraqi Oil Law Mean?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but this AP article on Yahoo says that the Iraqi Oil Law defines distribution of the oil revenues. My understanding is that it decides how the oil is going to be exploited (mainly by US oil companies) and that a subsequent law will have to be passed to decide on the revenue-sharing.

It's pretty plain why the US governemnt has been pushing for this. It's what Operation Iraqi Liberation, oops sorry, Freedom, was all about.