McCain's Vanishing Chances

According to fivethirtyeight.com, McCain's chances of winning are now a mere 5.9%. 

The Ground Game

Obama's campaign has been run immaculately, with election day always in mind.

Using momentum built during thr primaries, he has built the most impressive ground game that the US has probably ever seen.

Despite tens of thousands of "Neighborhood Team Leaders," and an entire organizing outreach tool actually named "Neighbor to Neighbor," Barone apparently fervently hopes Obama has no peer-to-peer efforts:

The most successful recent turnout drive was that of the Bush-Cheney '04 campaign, which relied on peer-to-peer volunteers, local people who made connections with neighbors with whom they had something in common (fellow members of a particular church, fellow accountants, nearby neighbors). The Obama campaign, in contrast, seems to be depending on youthful volunteers who seem unlikely to have such connections.

Wow. They. Are. So. F#$%ed.

the fivethirtyeight.com team have been travelling round the States checking out both parties' organisations on the ground. From what I've read, on this site and others, there's just no comparison. I think Sean Quinn's quote above sums it up.

A Letter from a Field Hand

This letter illustrates the failure of McCain's campaign - that it is strengthening his opponent.

And yesterday, I cried my last tears, after I watch the venomous, vile, and vitriolic display at the McCain-Palin rally unfold over the last few days. I was raised in a Southern Baptist church, and I was taught as a young child when things look bleak and you are backed up against a wall you just let go and let God. We as AAs have been subjected to the system and have the philosophy ingrained that we have to accept the things that we can not change.

Well here and now damn it--I have cried my last tears yesterday. I am going to fight!

Now add in this analysis on physorg.com, which speculates that Obama's numbers are being underestimated!

The Bradley effect is named for former Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley, a black, who lost a close 1982 gubernatorial election in California after holding a solid lead in the polls. As the 2008 primaries played out, Greenwald and Albertson found that the Bradley effect only showed up in three states -- California, New Hampshire and Rhode Island.

However, they found a reverse Bradley effect in 12 primary states. In these states they found actual support for Obama exceeded pre-election polls by totals of 7 percent or more, well beyond the polls' margins of error. These errors ranged up to 18 percent in Georgia.

Bye,bye Georgia? (H/T Andrew Sullivan)

This is how it's done, Wolf!

A message to Wolf Blitzer and the rest of the national media. This is how you question a politician or their spokesman. If they won't answer ask them again. Then again. Then again. Until the story becomes the fact that they won't answer and you can question why.



Can we send these guys to question Sarah Palin? Please?

Well, he was a POW, you know.

Longtime TPM Reader GG says I'm being too kind: "If a Dem had made that statement (my fellow prisoners) and in that context, the repubs would loudly proclaim the man mad as a hatter and unfit for the presidency.

He's as mad as a hatter!

90.5% !!

I saw Nate Silver of 538.com on the Colbert Report last night which I thought he handled pretty well. Hopefully it will drive a bit more traffic to the news that he is now projecting that Obama has a 90.5% chance of winning the election.

Here's a spreadsheet charting the movements in his figures over the last three months. Apart from the brief (though frightening) Palin bounce, Obama's always been on top and he is strengthening his position daily at the moment.

There's a lot that can go wrong yet, but...

Obama did well at the debate.

Let's hope that there are no more surprises.

Is Wolf Blitzer a Journalist?

Absolutely no challenge to the fact that Sarah Palin will not take questions from the press. He sounds as if the spokeswoman is being reasonable. 

Challenge it!

Sarah Just Pallin' Around

Whilst Sarah is out and about stirring up bigotry and hatred, she is still refusing to talk to the press. In fact, the McCain campaign has no intention of letting her talk before the election. Frightening!

How else will questions like this get answered? H/T Andrew Sullivan

Pollster.com's Electoral Map Widget

Here's Pollster.com's electoral map widget.

Obama Rising

538.com's daily stats now show Obama's chances of winning next month are at 87.4%. 

I thought the VP debate response was interesting. I wondered if there would be an uptick in McCain's support as wavering voters manaed to convince themselves that Palin wasn't a total disaster. However, it gave most voters a chance to hear Joe Biden who's basically been ignored on the campaign trail and I thought he came off very well. 

Whilst, Palin failed almost totally, or coherently to answer any questions, Biden was knowledgeable and concide. When Palin stumbled over the Afghanistan commander's name and came out with 'McClellan' (I'm not sure if she was r

eferring to the civil war general or Bush's bumbling press secretary. It seems unlikely she would have heard of the general), Biden, following up, didn't correct her, or use the name McKiernan, but talked of our commander in Afghanistan. This followed on from the tactics Obama used in the preidential debate when he maintained his calm demeanor against McCain.

Here's the graph showing the 538.com stats as they have moved over the last three months.

Pure Genius.

Pure genius from Tina Fey on SNL. I can't tell them apart any more.

Obama Rising

The polls are reflecting a big rise in support for Obama over the last couple of weeks. A combination of the economic meltdown, the Palin interview and the debate are now pushing the numbers up.

On 538.com Obama's chances of winning are now up over 80% for the first time.

How Did McCain Miss This?

How did John MCain overlook this candidate for VP? She looks much more qualified that Palin.

Why Obama Won't Impress Everybody

I just saw this on Wonkette. Good Lord!

Running Scared

The announcement yesterday that John McCain was 'suspending' his campaign to deal with the finance crisis always looked like a stunt.

However, I am beginning to strongly believe that the driving motive for all of this is to cancel the VP debate. The problem isn't that Palin won't answer questions but that they have been unable to get her to shut up. She wants to answer questions but McCain aides usher her away from any contact with the press. She's obviously far more confident in her ability than anyone around her is.

I've heard most of the interview with Katie Couric - what on earth was she talking about? No wonder McCain wants to reschedule his first debate in place of the VP's.

Sarah Palin's Bio

Here is a must-read biography of Sarah Palin, from Dickipedia.

In 1984, Palin won the Miss Wasilla Pageant, a feat that sounds a lot more impressive than it is unless you’ve ever met a girl from Wasilla, few of whom have either a full set of teeth or a vacant womb. She then finished runner up in the Miss Alaska pageant, a feat that sounds a lot more impressive than it is considering the state is nearly 75% male.

Don't Look Now

I've been following the statistics of 538.com since the start of the race and have been keeping a daily note on Obama's electoral chances. This last week or two has been pretty depressing. How can so many people be taken in by a campaign like this.

But there are signs that the tide might be turning. There was the hilarious session of John McCain on 'The View' where he probably faced the toughest questions that he has had put to him yet. The MSM seems to be waking up. Obama's fundraising machine just keeps carrying on.

So while it's looking pretty bleak in the polls, I think we'll be seeing a big upswing soon.

Is Palin Prepared for Office?

Steve Benen highlights in Washington Monthly that Tom Brokaw of NBC pushed back at the criticism that the GOP are dishing out at the MSM. 

Brokaw, to his credit, set the record straight: "With all due respect, and said this earlier, I think that issue has not been raised at the highest levels. I think there have been many more concerns about foreign policy experience, for example, about some of her other views, if she's going to appeal to the Clinton voters. She is after all, anti-abortion, not for choice. There are some questions about her real beliefs -- creationism vs. evolution -- and whether or not being the governor of a state like Alaska, with 600,000 people, and a budget that is underwritten by the oil companies, prepares her for stepping into the Oval Office."

I agree with all of that except.....

I would have thought that having a budget underwritten (or perhaps that should be written) by the oil companies was a perfect preparation for the White House.

It's Official

Foreign policy experience can be gained by standing in the right place!

MCCAIN: Sure. And one of the key elements of America’s national security requirements are energy. She understands the energy issues better than anybody I know in Washington, D.C., and she understands.

Alaska is right next to Russia. She understands that. Look, Sen. Obama’s never visited south of our border. I mean, please.

From Steve Doocey to John McCain. Who'd have believed it.