McCain's Vanishing Chances

According to fivethirtyeight.com, McCain's chances of winning are now a mere 5.9%. 

North Carolina Update

There's a long and detailed look at North Carolina by Al Giordano on The Field.  It aagain back up the organisation that Obama has set up throughout the country which is going to change the way that elections are run. 

The Field has listened to all the talk of Obama possibly winning North Carolina and its 15 Electoral Votes with a healthy dose of skepticism, but also with great curiosity (which is why we added it to our swing state reporting tour when it was only number 15 among 538's "tipping point" states - it's now number seven). Remember that, in 2004, Republican George W. Bush won 1,961,166 votes here (56 percent) to just 1,525,849 for Democrat John Kerry.

He goes on to quote Hugh J. McColl, former CEO of Bank of America who endorses Obama and stock market guru James Cramer who explains the difference between the two candidates as "Obama is a recession. McCain is a depression". 

However, it is the extent of Obama's ground organisation that makes a real impression.

At the end of the day on Thursday, The Field conducted an unannounced "inspection" of the regional Obama office in Greenville, to which the local organizers report each day. It was 8:30 p.m., the close of phone banking hours, and the headquarters was a beehive of activity with phone-bankers ending their shift and change crew chiefs bringing in the day's tallies. More than 250 newly filled voter registration forms sat atop an organizer's desk. After phone banking, the organizers then get on a regional conference call with statewide organizers to report the day's numerical progress (new voters, phone contacts, canvass contacts, etcetera). It took the local organizers until after 10 p.m. to finish their daily tasks.

Alright. Okay. I get it. This isn't just a political campaign. It's a steamroller (my italics). This is why North Carolina really is in play. And the excitement in this state - from West to East - is the highest and the hungriest among the five states we visited in the past two weeks.

Summing the article up is Obama representative Dan Blue.

"We're definitely in play. If I had to make the call, I believe we're going to win it."

Read the whole thing.

The Ground Game

Obama's campaign has been run immaculately, with election day always in mind.

Using momentum built during thr primaries, he has built the most impressive ground game that the US has probably ever seen.

Despite tens of thousands of "Neighborhood Team Leaders," and an entire organizing outreach tool actually named "Neighbor to Neighbor," Barone apparently fervently hopes Obama has no peer-to-peer efforts:

The most successful recent turnout drive was that of the Bush-Cheney '04 campaign, which relied on peer-to-peer volunteers, local people who made connections with neighbors with whom they had something in common (fellow members of a particular church, fellow accountants, nearby neighbors). The Obama campaign, in contrast, seems to be depending on youthful volunteers who seem unlikely to have such connections.

Wow. They. Are. So. F#$%ed.

the fivethirtyeight.com team have been travelling round the States checking out both parties' organisations on the ground. From what I've read, on this site and others, there's just no comparison. I think Sean Quinn's quote above sums it up.

A Letter from a Field Hand

This letter illustrates the failure of McCain's campaign - that it is strengthening his opponent.

And yesterday, I cried my last tears, after I watch the venomous, vile, and vitriolic display at the McCain-Palin rally unfold over the last few days. I was raised in a Southern Baptist church, and I was taught as a young child when things look bleak and you are backed up against a wall you just let go and let God. We as AAs have been subjected to the system and have the philosophy ingrained that we have to accept the things that we can not change.

Well here and now damn it--I have cried my last tears yesterday. I am going to fight!

Now add in this analysis on physorg.com, which speculates that Obama's numbers are being underestimated!

The Bradley effect is named for former Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley, a black, who lost a close 1982 gubernatorial election in California after holding a solid lead in the polls. As the 2008 primaries played out, Greenwald and Albertson found that the Bradley effect only showed up in three states -- California, New Hampshire and Rhode Island.

However, they found a reverse Bradley effect in 12 primary states. In these states they found actual support for Obama exceeded pre-election polls by totals of 7 percent or more, well beyond the polls' margins of error. These errors ranged up to 18 percent in Georgia.

Bye,bye Georgia? (H/T Andrew Sullivan)

Obama's Ace In The Hole

With all of the hype surrounding the polls and Obama's rise, there's always the worry that come Polling Day, the turnout remains low and the other guy (no, that one) sneaks in.

Obama's campaign through the primaries and into the presidential election has been planned and carried out immaculately. I am expecting the his 'Get Out The Vote' plan is equally impressive. 

With his massive numbers of organisers in every state, he should have a huge advantage over the Republicans whose enthusiasm, I should imagine,  is waning as their poll numbers sink.

Chill Out!

I first saw this (on Oliver Willis) during the Palin poll bounce. I was pretty unchilled at the time but now, it's looking prescient.

Well, he was a POW, you know.

Longtime TPM Reader GG says I'm being too kind: "If a Dem had made that statement (my fellow prisoners) and in that context, the repubs would loudly proclaim the man mad as a hatter and unfit for the presidency.

He's as mad as a hatter!

90.5% !!

I saw Nate Silver of 538.com on the Colbert Report last night which I thought he handled pretty well. Hopefully it will drive a bit more traffic to the news that he is now projecting that Obama has a 90.5% chance of winning the election.

Here's a spreadsheet charting the movements in his figures over the last three months. Apart from the brief (though frightening) Palin bounce, Obama's always been on top and he is strengthening his position daily at the moment.

There's a lot that can go wrong yet, but...

Obama did well at the debate.

Let's hope that there are no more surprises.

Is Wolf Blitzer a Journalist?

Absolutely no challenge to the fact that Sarah Palin will not take questions from the press. He sounds as if the spokeswoman is being reasonable. 

Challenge it!

Sarah Just Pallin' Around

Whilst Sarah is out and about stirring up bigotry and hatred, she is still refusing to talk to the press. In fact, the McCain campaign has no intention of letting her talk before the election. Frightening!

How else will questions like this get answered? H/T Andrew Sullivan

Pollster.com's Electoral Map Widget

Here's Pollster.com's electoral map widget.

This is worth a read...

H/T to Andrew Sullivan for this link. 

The Norwegian newspaper VG has reported a truly amazing story about a newly-wed trying to get to Norway to be with her husband, and the stranger who helped pay an unexpected luggage surcharge.  The blog "Leisha's Random Thoughts" has translated the story.

Obama Rising

538.com's daily stats now show Obama's chances of winning next month are at 87.4%. 

I thought the VP debate response was interesting. I wondered if there would be an uptick in McCain's support as wavering voters manaed to convince themselves that Palin wasn't a total disaster. However, it gave most voters a chance to hear Joe Biden who's basically been ignored on the campaign trail and I thought he came off very well. 

Whilst, Palin failed almost totally, or coherently to answer any questions, Biden was knowledgeable and concide. When Palin stumbled over the Afghanistan commander's name and came out with 'McClellan' (I'm not sure if she was r

eferring to the civil war general or Bush's bumbling press secretary. It seems unlikely she would have heard of the general), Biden, following up, didn't correct her, or use the name McKiernan, but talked of our commander in Afghanistan. This followed on from the tactics Obama used in the preidential debate when he maintained his calm demeanor against McCain.

Here's the graph showing the 538.com stats as they have moved over the last three months.

Pure Genius.

Pure genius from Tina Fey on SNL. I can't tell them apart any more.

What a Speech

Magnificent. (H/T Andrew Sullivan)

Most discussions in the election race have tiptoed around the latent racism that has existed so far. Here, Richard Trumka tackles it head on. This is probably one of the speeches of the campaign.

Obama Rising

The polls are reflecting a big rise in support for Obama over the last couple of weeks. A combination of the economic meltdown, the Palin interview and the debate are now pushing the numbers up.

On 538.com Obama's chances of winning are now up over 80% for the first time.

Why Obama Won't Impress Everybody

I just saw this on Wonkette. Good Lord!

Debate Reaction

I don't suppose that many other people here in Melbourne were watching the debate - it's AFL Grand Final Day here today.

I was pretty impressed with Obama's coolness today. The Surge tactics-strategy argument was probably over most people's heads. I hoped that Obama would have pushed the issue that the objective of 'The Surge' was political reconciliation which hasn't happened yet, regardless of the recent vote on elections (which kicked the Kirkuk can down the road). Plus the fact that 'The Surge' wasn't the only reason for the drop in violence.

At the end of the day, it wasn't the game-changer that McCain needed.

Now on to important matters! Geelong or Hawthorn?

Running Scared

The announcement yesterday that John McCain was 'suspending' his campaign to deal with the finance crisis always looked like a stunt.

However, I am beginning to strongly believe that the driving motive for all of this is to cancel the VP debate. The problem isn't that Palin won't answer questions but that they have been unable to get her to shut up. She wants to answer questions but McCain aides usher her away from any contact with the press. She's obviously far more confident in her ability than anyone around her is.

I've heard most of the interview with Katie Couric - what on earth was she talking about? No wonder McCain wants to reschedule his first debate in place of the VP's.